RFK Jr's Trump endorsement
How will Robert F Kennedy Jr’s endorsement of Donald Trump impact the election? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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Snippets
Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov was arrested and charged by French authorities for complicity in illegal online activity on the encrypted messaging app and refusing to cooperate with authorities.
Ukraine continued its cross-border assault, saying it struck two Russian oil depots in different locations near eastern Ukraine with the goal of slowing Russia’s offensive.
Israel launched its largest military operation in the West Bank since the beginning of the Gaza war, killing 16 people including a top militant commander in a campaign it says is aimed at preventing future attacks.
Special Counsel Jack Smith issued a revised indictment alleging former President Donald Trump conspired to overturn the 2020 election results. The revision is intended to address and navigate the Supreme Court’s July ruling granting former presidents broad immunity for acts conducted while in office.
Israel bombed thousands of Hezbollah missile sites in Lebanon during what it called a preemptive strike – Hezbollah retaliated by firing 200+ projectiles into Israel. Both sides claimed success in an exchange viewed by observers as restrained and intended to avoid escalation of conflict in the region.
What’s happening
Last week, independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr announced he was suspending his campaign and endorsing former President Donald Trump. Kennedy said he lacked a realistic path to electoral victory and that he is endorsing Trump based on three “great causes” – free speech, the war in Ukraine, and the “war on our children” (a phrase alluding to his view that corporate interests are contributing to childhood disease in the US).
Kennedy elaborated that he had left the Democratic party because it “had become the party of war, censorship, corruption, Big Pharma, Big Tech, Big Ag, and Big Money.”
Trump’s reaction: At a campaign rally joined by Kennedy shortly after the announcement, Trump reiterated an earlier pledge that he would work with Kennedy to establish a panel investigating an uptick in chronic health conditions and childhood diseases if elected. While no formal cabinet position has been promised to Kennedy, Trump tapped him as an honorary co-chair of the campaign’s transition team to help select personnel and policies of a potential Trump presidency.
Withdrawal plan: Kennedy said he is removing himself from “about 10 battleground states” but staying on the ballot in decisively red and blue states so supporters can vote for him without affecting Trump’s chances. It is reportedly too late for Kennedy to remove himself from the ballots in 3 swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina – based on ballot rules in each, a complication that could affect his efforts to nudge supporters toward Trump.
How Kennedy got here: Kennedy, son of former Senator Robert F Kennedy and nephew of former President John F Kennedy, comes from a family ingrained in the Democratic party. He built his reputation as an environmental lawyer and activist credited with helping improve New York City’s drinking water, cleaning up the Hudson River, and winning settlements against chemical companies for environmental contamination.
Kennedy initially launched his presidential campaign as a Democratic candidate last April before leaving the party to run as an independent in October. According to some measures, his polling support had declined from around 10% earlier in 2024 to roughly 5% in August.
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump has drawn a wide range of support, criticism, and competing perspectives on its potential electoral impact. This week we bring you the viewpoints from multiple sides. Let us know what you think in the comments.
Notable viewpoints
Kennedy’s withdrawal will help Trump’s election chances:
A Cook Political Report released in August found that Kennedy’s supporters prefer Trump over Harris by a nearly 2-1 margin, suggesting his dropping out could help Trump if Kennedy’s supporters decide to vote.
While the nominal impact of Kennedy’s dropping out may seem small, his supporters could make a significant electoral impact depending on how they’re distributed; for example, Biden won Arizona (a key swing state) by only 11,000 votes in 2020; Kennedy was recently polling as high as 6% there and if a fraction of that support went to Trump, it could flip the state.
An August Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump received a 10% boost in polling support when Trump and Harris were the only two options: Harris led Trump 42%-37% when Kennedy and other 3rd-party candidates were included in the poll but just 49%-47% when 3rd-party candidates were excluded.
While there isn’t granular information on Kennedy’s standing in all swing states before he withdrew, his recent national polling between 3-6% is high enough to suggest that his now up-for-grabs votes could shift outcomes in states like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, which were decided by a combined 43,000 votes in 2020.
Kennedy’s calls for the government to more explicitly address public health issues such as chronic disease should win over voters concerned with public health and add to Trump’s support base.
Kennedy’s withdrawal will not significantly impact the election:
The impact of Kennedy’s withdrawal from the race is unclear given he was already dropping in polls – from 10%+ in FiveThirtyEight polling averages in May to just 4.9% in August after Harris took over the Democratic ticket – and the direction his supporters will go is not cut-and-dry.
Several opinion polls that included 3rd-party candidates alongside Trump and Harris have been inconclusive on whether Kennedy’s support comes more from right-leaning or left-leaning voters, and the margins are slim in every case.
With still two months to go until election day, Kennedy’s withdrawal is more likely to be a small blip in an otherwise eventful election year, and Kennedy likely would have had a greater impact had he stayed in the race or dropped out at the last moment.
Kennedy’s public suspicion of COVID-19 vaccines may not help Trump, who prefers to take credit for funding the COVID-19 vaccines during his presidency.
Kennedy’s Trump endorsement is justified:
The Democratic party has strayed from its traditional values toward censorship and undemocratic practices such as attempts to block Trump and other Republicans from ballots, a shift that justifies Kennedy’s departure from the party and ultimate endorsement of Trump.
Trump and Kennedy are a good fit because of what they have in common – they’ve both been singled out by the left and share some significant policy views including skepticism of America’s foreign interventionism.
The mainstream media has colluded with the Democratic party to censor opposing views such as Kennedy’s, granting him minimal interviews and criticizing him at every turn; alignment with Trump is the most effective way to promote his vision.
Two of Kennedy’s most prominent policy stances – 1) opposition to the war in Ukraine and 2) critiques of Democratic lawfare – are popular with Trump supporters, making Kennedy a good fit for the campaign.
Kennedy’s Trump endorsement is hypocritical:
Kennedy endorsing Trump is primarily an act of political self-preservation that betrays the Kennedy family and abandons his still-liberal views rooted in the Democratic party.
“It feels especially hypocritical that Bobby, a genuine environmentalist, has thrown in with the most anti-environmental president in our history, who promises to ‘drill, baby, drill’ if elected.” (Max Kennedy, Kennedy’s brother.)
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump, who is one of the most divisive political figures in recent history, goes against Kennedy’s campaign emphasis on healing American divisions.
“Earlier this month, as Harris surged in the polls, my brother [Kennedy] offered her his endorsement in exchange for a position in her coming administration…Now he has offered that same deal to Trump. His is a hollow grab for power, a strategic attempt at relevance. It is the opposite of what my father [former Senator Robert F Kennedy] admired: ‘the unselfish spirit that exists in the United States of America.’" (Max Kennedy, Kennedy’s brother.)
Other viewpoints:
The primary driver of Kennedy dropping out – among other factors that included dwindling campaign finances and successfully getting on the ballot in only 22 states – was that he was largely running on being an alternative to a Biden-Trump rematch; that value prop diminished once Harris took over the Democratic ticket.
Trump and Kennedy are more of a politically convenient match than one of substance and mutual respect; for example, Trump in April said Kennedy was “far more liberal than anyone running as a Democrat,” and Kennedy has called Trump “a terrible human being. The worst president ever and barely human.”
While Trump said he would “enlist” Kennedy in the government if he wins, Trump should be careful to prevent Kennedy from influencing healthcare or environmental policies given how distant he is from Trump on those issues.
Kennedy’s push to reign in Big Pharma and Big Ag clashes with Trump’s favoritism of corporate interests, and makes Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump a confounding choice in pursuit of outcomes aligned to his worldviews.
“But the Trump campaign might also be wary of attaching itself too closely to Kennedy’s brand…he has been disavowed by members of his own famous family and now peddles conspiracy theories not just about the Covid-19 vaccine, but his father’s killer, 5G cell phone transmission, fraud in the 2004 election, and more.” (Nicole Narea, Vox.)
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