The Israel-Hamas ceasefire
What are the implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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What’s happening
Israel’s cabinet approved a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that will take effect on Sunday. The deal consists of three phases that enable an immediate ceasefire and ongoing negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and other specifics.
It will pause roughly 15 months of fighting since Hamas’s Oct 7 attacks on Israel in which 1,200 civilians were killed and 250 were taken hostage. The latest official Palestinian death toll from the war was at 46,600 according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians.
The agreement: Phase one of the ceasefire will last 6 weeks, during which Hamas will return 33 hostages limited to children, women, and men over 50. In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, begin a gradual withdrawal from populated parts of Gaza, and allow displaced Gazans to return to the north. On the 16th day of phase one, negotiations on the specifics of additional hostage and prisoner exchanges during phase two will begin.
Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for every one civilian hostage it receives and 50 prisoners for every female Israeli soldier hostage. (Roughly 100 hostages are believed to remain in Gaza, roughly 35 of which are believed to be dead.)
Phase two, if entered, would also last 6 weeks and is expected to include the release of all remaining Israeli hostages, permanent cease-fire negotiations, and Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. Phase 3 would involve the return of the remains of dead Israeli hostages and the beginning of Gaza reconstruction.
US influence: Envoys from both Biden and Trump’s teams were reportedly involved in securing final agreement during negotiations in Qatar. Biden said the ceasefire proposal was the same deal his administration pushed for in May 2024, crediting “many months of intensive diplomacy” since. Trump also took credit for the agreement, citing the influence of his “historic victory in November” in a post on Truth Social.
The deal is a significant milestone in the Israel-Hamas conflict and likely the beginning of an uncertain road forward. With such nuance and variety to the perspectives surrounding the ceasefire, we organize the viewpoints below into a few directional categories – a slight departure from our typical format that we believe serves the topic. Let us know what you think.
Notable viewpoints
The deal is a win for Hamas:
Releasing Hamas prisoners that are guilty of murder will guarantee more violence, enabling them to commit violent acts in the future. October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar was once a prisoner and released in 2011 in a similar prisoner exchange of 1,027 Palestinian and Israeli Arab prisoners for one IDF soldier.
With Israel having to release 50 Palestinian prisoners for every one of the 5 female Israeli soldiers to be released by Hamas and 30 for every one of the other remaining hostages, the tradeoff is immensely in Hamas’s favor and could lead to the ultimate release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, a significant price for Israel.
Netanyahu’s agreeing to a ceasefire with a number of concessions including the release of hundreds of Hamas fighters and potentially the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gazan territory will embolden Hamas to continue its cycle of terror.
“Make no mistake, with Israel striking a deal, not only will Hamas claim victory, but it will also likely scuttle the final release [of hostages] to continue its leverage and buy time to rebuild.” (Michael Rubin, AEI.)
The deal is a win for Israel:
Israel has made significant strategic progress since a similar ceasefire was proposed in May 2024, decimating Hamas in Gaza, submitting Hezbollah in Lebanon, establishing its presence in Syria, and embarrassing Iran, making it a win for Israel regardless of how many Palestinian prisoners it releases.
The return of the remaining hostages is a win for Israel, their families, and for those who believe the pursuit of their safe return is a moral duty.
“No matter how many Palestinian prisoners are released, nobody in Hamas can seriously say that their Oct. 7 gamble rewarded them with anything except catastrophe. Israel also has less to fear, with Trump as president, from the threat of international arms embargoes or legal sanctions.” (Bret Stephens, New York Times.)
Agreeing to a ceasefire enables Israel to free up its resources to focus on other regional concerns such as Iran’s nuclear program and likely earns it more diplomatic favor with allies critical of its offensive in Gaza.
The deal should have come sooner:
With an estimated 69% of Gaza’s buildings damaged or destroyed, less than half of its hospitals operational, and most sewage and power infrastructure gone, the ceasefire came too late and will leave 2M+ Gazans stranded in a decimated region with little hope of having a functioning place to live for years.
“But the real tragedy here is not the destroyed infrastructure, roads and buildings. What we witnessed in Gaza was the destruction of an entire society. Israel did not merely destroy the landscape. It ripped the very fabric of Gaza’s social, cultural, intellectual and economic life into pieces.” (Somdeep Sen, Professor of International Development Studies at Roskilde University in Denmark.)
Hamas could have agreed to return hostages much earlier in the war and ended the fighting sooner, but decided to sacrifice thousands of additional Gazan lives either out of intentional martyrdom or out of a misguided belief they could truly defeat Israel.
Israel’s objective of completely eradicating Hamas was always unrealistic, given its thousands of members and years-long rule of Gaza, and led to an unnecessary continuance of the war that could have ended through ceasefire sooner.
Other viewpoints:
Hamas likely felt more obliged to agree to a ceasefire now in light of Trump’s campaign threats that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t released prior to his Jan 20 inauguration.
The most tenuous part of the ceasefire is phase two – which requires Hamas to return all remaining hostages and Israel to commit to withdrawing completely from Gaza – and there are no guarantees the ceasefire stays intact.
Even with tacit agreements to help rebuild Gaza, it is unlikely that Israel will pay for the rebuild without significant pressure from Western countries.
“Ceasefires are often hailed as victories for diplomacy, but to me, they are more like pauses in a constant nightmare. This latest agreement is a reminder that, for the people of Gaza, survival often hinges on the fragility of politics...Is this truly a step towards peace, or just another chapter in a story of delayed justice and extended suffering?” (Afaf Al-Najjar, Palestinian journalist in Gaza.)
“I have long believed that the biggest obstacle to ending this war, aside from Hamas holding hostages, was Netanyahu's understanding that doing so would cause a collapse in his coalition…It should be one of the great political scandals of our time that an obstacle to ending this horrific spate of violence was a prime minister fearing he would lose his job if the war ended.” (Isaac Saul, Tangle News.)
Be heard
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your perspective on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and we may feature it in our socials or future newsletters. Below are topic ideas to consider.
What is your biggest takeaway from the timing and scope of the ceasefire deal?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?
Snippets
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The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% in December, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, in-line with forecasts. The core inflation rate was 3.2%, slightly lower than expectations, driving a surge in stock prices.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) banned the use of Red Dye No. 3 in food, citing studies finding it can cause cancer in rats. Red Dye No. 3 is a chemical used to give candy, soda, and other snacks a red coloring.
The Senate held hearings for many of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet selections, including Attorney General pick Pam Bondi and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who appears on-track for confirmation after a back-and-forth hearing focused on allegations he has historically faced.
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested by South Korean officials and is under investigation for rebellion charges in connection to his declaration of martial law in the country last month.
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