The Israel-Hezbollah escalation
Should Israel continue its assault on Hezbollah? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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Snippets
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New York City Mayor Eric Adams was indicted on federal charges of bribery, wire fraud, and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations, becoming New York’s first sitting mayor to be charged with a crime. Adams, who pleaded not guilty, allegedly agreed to act on the Turkish government’s behalf in exchange for illegal campaign contributions.
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President Joe Biden announced an $8B military aid package for Ukraine that includes $5.5B in weapons stock drawdowns and $2.4B in weapons funding.
Vice President Kamala Harris said in an interview that she supports eliminating the Senate filibuster in order to help pass national abortion rights legislation with a simple Senate majority. Her statement on the filibuster, a long-standing feature of Senate procedures, reignited debate over its merits.
What’s happening
Israel continued its bombardment on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon today, with airstrikes destroying several residential buildings in the Beirut suburbs. The strikes reportedly targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, believed to be located in Hezbollah’s central headquarters under the buildings. Neither the casualty count nor the status of Nasrallah were immediately clear as of this writing.
Intensifying attacks: The attacks are the latest in an intensifying assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past week. Israel executed a series of sophisticated detonations of pagers and radios carried by Hezbollah members that left an estimated 37+ people killed and 3,000 wounded. It then launched a sequence of ongoing airstrikes – including its deadliest in Lebanon since the 2006 Lebanon War – that have killed several of Hezbollah’s top commanders and left an estimated 600+ dead and 2,000 injured since Monday.
How the conflict got here: Hezbollah began launching missile and rocket attacks across Lebanon’s southern border into Israel the day after Hamas’s Oct 7 attacks on Israel. Exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel at the border have continued for much of the past year, with an estimated 8,000+ projectiles fired by Hezbollah into northern Israel and approximately 180,000 people displaced on either side of the border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the goal of recent aggression toward Hezbollah is to force the group away from the border and return Israelis to their homes in the north. Hezbollah has continued to fire weapons across the border during Israel’s recent attacks and has said it will not stop until Israel ceases its offensive in Gaza.
What is Hezbollah: Hezbollah is a Shiite Muslim political party and militant group created during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). It is the most powerful military force in Lebanon, funded by Iran, and committed to the destruction of the Israeli state. The group is considered a terrorist organization by the US, Israel, and the Gulf Arab states.
What’s next: Israel’s recent attacks have sparked concerns over a potential full-scale ground war in Lebanon. The US and France jointly proposed a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to prevent further escalation. Israel, which has reportedly told its troops to prepare for a ground operation, initially rejected the ceasefire proposal before clarifying that it is interested in furthering the discussion.
Israel’s escalating attacks have surfaced perspectives from across the spectrum on whether its aggression has been justified and should continue. This week, we bring you the viewpoints from multiple sides. Let us know what you think.
Notable viewpoints
More supportive of Israel’s recent strikes:
The attacks on Hezbollah are necessary to improve Israel’s short-term and long-term security.
The 8,000+ projectiles Hezbollah has fired into Israel since the Oct 7 Hamas attacks – including a missile that killed 12 civilians playing soccer in northern Israel – are more than enough justification for Israel to defend itself and pursue aggressive means to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“One lesson of Oct. 7 is that Israel can’t let terrorists build up armies, even if they seem deterred. Northern Israel could never be safe if Hezbollah retains its arsenal. The Israeli strikes will degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, perhaps for many years.” (Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.)
Hezbollah is one of the Middle East’s most capable militaries and is significantly more powerful than Hamas, possessing 150,000+ rockets and missiles including long-range weapons that can strike Israel’s southernmost points; it is a significant threat to Israel and must be neutralized head-on.
Weakening Hezbollah – as Israel has already done to Hamas – will continue to help degrade Iran’s broader proxy network and the “ring of fire” around Israel, helping Israel further its security.
Israel has signaled to Hezbollah that it wants the group to cease its cross-border rocket fire and remove its forces from the border so Israelis can return to their homes in the north; therefore, it is up to Hezbollah to prevent continued escalation by agreeing to remove its forces from the area.
The pager attacks were effective military strikes.
Israel’s pager attacks, while causing collateral damage, were as precise as any other potential military strike could have been and were designed to minimize civilian casualties.
Israel’s detonations of Hezbollah handheld devices were effective strikes that sabotaged Hezbollah’s ability to communicate and have likely forced its militants to become extra cautious with every piece of equipment they use, slowing their operations.
The pager attacks were a “ruthless tactical masterstroke” by Israel, which is justified in defending itself through such means, particularly when it faces growing threats from all sides including Hezbollah in the northwest, Hamas in the southwest, Iranian-backed militias in Syria to the north, Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian-supplied militants in Sudan.
The US should support Israel’s aggression against Hezbollah.
The Biden administration should do more to support Israel – its mixed strategy of verbally supporting the country while encouraging restraint has only emboldened aggressors like Hezbollah.
Neutralizing Hezbollah would help remove a key Iran proxy threat and bring more stability to the region, an effort that deserves the full support of the US.
Hezbollah is a problem for everyone, including the US and other Western states; it is not in the West’s interests to allow Hezbollah – with emerging ties to Russia – to control a Middle Eastern state and terrorize the region.
More opposed to Israel’s recent strikes:
Israel’s aggression toward Hezbollah risks a broader conflict without clear strategic gain.
To date, Israel’s escalations in Lebanon have not significantly reduced the number of projectiles fired by Hezbollah into Israel; Hezbollah has said it will stop firing rockets when there is a ceasefire reached in Gaza and that should be Netanyahu’s priority.
“Israeli policymakers may be tempted to believe that they can deal a once-in-a-generation [blow] to Hezbollah and rely on the United States for back up should Iran come to Hezbollah’s aid. Yet the Israeli government has not provided the IDF with specific, achievable military goals or articulated a realistic end state for Hezbollah – laying the groundwork for an extended offensive with ill-defined objectives prone to mission creep.” (Dana Stroul, Foreign Affairs.)
Regardless of how the Israel-Hezbollah conflict unfolds, Israel is unlikely to be able to eliminate Hezbollah, and it should look for ways to tamper its aggression in order to prevent potentially catastrophic consequences in the region.
Given Hezbollah is more closely tied to Iran’s foreign policy objectives than Hamas, a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah brings a greater risk of pulling Iran into a regional war.
While Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel’s recent assaults, it would be unwise for Israel to launch a ground invasion in Lebanon because it could play into Hezbollah’s favor by enabling them to rally support from new recruits and expose Israel to the dangers of a desperate group willing to do anything to retaliate.
The pager attacks were tantamount to war crimes.
The pager attacks may have violated an international law of war, Article 7(2) of Amended Protocol II, which disallows the “use of booby-traps or other devices in the form of harmless portable objects which are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material.”
Remotely detonating personal devices without knowledge of where the devices are at a given moment qualifies as an indiscriminate attack and likely violates international law on proportionality (which prohibits military attacks that will cause incidental civilian damage excessive to the anticipated military advantage).
Israel’s pager attacks, which killed civilians including children, were designed to stoke fear across an entire population – not just militants – and therefore amount to terrorism.
The US should push for ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Given Hezbollah has indicated it would stop its aggression at the Israeli border when the Gaza fighting ends, President Biden should pressure Israel into securing an immediate ceasefire in Gaza by pausing all weapons shipments to Israel.
If the Israel-Hezbollah hostilities continue to spiral, they could ultimately trigger the worst fears of a wider Middle Eastern conflict that puts the US and Israel against Iran and its proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
Netanyahu’s heightened aggression in Lebanon is politically motivated.
Netanyahu, who is set to face corruption trials and the additional pressure of disapproval among much of the Israeli population, is incentivized to prolong and expand Israel’s conflicts with adversaries to maintain his coalition; his heightened aggression toward Hezbollah is largely a political strategy.
Other viewpoints:
Halting its attacks on Israel prior to a ceasefire being reached in Gaza would be viewed as a significant defeat for Hezbollah, which makes reaching an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire challenging.
Hezbollah is already losing support among Lebanese people, with 55% saying they have “no trust at all” in the organization according to an Arab Barometer survey conducted in the spring; a full-scale war with Israel would be deadly for Lebanon and erode Hezbollah’s support even further.
Israel’s pager attack on Hezbollah was tactically brilliant but also marks a frightening new era of cyberwarfare where any connected device could become a weapon.
The harshness of the pager attacks has likely turned some Lebanese people otherwise opposed to Hezbollah into supporters of a violent response against Israel by Hezbollah.
“[G]iven that the [pager] operation has already been carried out, Israel's smartest move now is to seek a swift diplomatic resolution. We hit them, they responded, let's end this. Let's not repeat the mistake we made by dragging out the Second Lebanon War.” (Raviv Drucker, Israeli columnist, Haaretz.)
In an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US would likely be called upon to provide direct military support from its navy to bolster air defenses against Hezbollah missiles, which could ultimately escalate into direct conflict between US and Iranian or even Russian forces should a broader regional war break out.
The US, while applying pressure for de-escalation with Hezbollah, should continue to affirm its support for Israel to ensure Iran and its proxies don’t perceive Israel as isolated.
Be heard!
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your perspective on Israel’s escalating strikes against Hezbollah and we may feature it in our socials or future newsletters. Topic ideas to consider:
Do you support Israel’s current strategy against Hezbollah? Why or why not?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?
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Music on the bottom
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