Trump's deportation plans
Are Trump’s deportation plans effective policy? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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What’s happening
Over the past week, President-elect Donald Trump began solidifying his administration through a series of personnel decisions. He appointed 3 key individuals likely to drive his immigration policy:
Stephen Miller, a former Trump speechwriter and campaign adviser and a long-time “immigration hardliner,” will be Trump’s deputy chief of staff.
Tom Homan, former acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in 2017-2018 during Trump’s first term, was selected as Trump’s “border czar.”
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (R) was appointed to be secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The position traditionally plays a heavy role in managing the border and immigration system.
Observers view the selections as indication Trump is committed to following through on some of his campaign promises to tighten immigration rules and ramp up deportations.
Campaign promises: On the campaign trail, Trump promised to launch the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” affirming his commitment to deporting undocumented immigrants. He’s also vowed to shift vast amounts of resources to deportation efforts and, if necessary, invoke the Alien Enemies Act (1798), which was last used during World War II to detain certain German and Italian nationals living in the US.
Trump told Time Magazine in May that he would target 15M-20M undocumented immigrants, though some members of his circle – such as JD Vance – have suggested the number would be smaller. (Current estimates on the total number of undocumented immigrants living in the US are around 11M.)
Early indications: After his appointment as “border czar,” Homan said in a Fox News interview this week that deportation efforts will “prioritize public safety threats and national security threats first.” He also said part of the focus would be on “1.5 million convicted criminal aliens in this country with final orders of removal.” Homan suggested in a 60 Minutes interview last month that one way to avoid separating families during deportation would be to deport families together.
The incoming administration has reportedly also spoken with private prison companies about building new detention centers near major metropolitan areas to help house immigrants awaiting deportation.
With Trump’s early immigration priorities taking shape but still evolving, we take a look this week at viewpoints from multiple sides on Trump’s stated plans to order mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Let us know what you think.
Notable viewpoints
More opposed to Trump’s deportation plans:
Mass deportations would hurt the American economy.
Deportations would reduce food supply by removing a significant portion of workers that produce it, driving up food prices. Immigrants account for an estimated 73% of crop farmworkers and roughly 40% are estimated to be undocumented.
Deportations would contribute to higher housing costs because housing construction is the most effective way to reduce home prices and undocumented immigrants account for an estimated 23% of the construction workforce.
Previous administrations, including Republican-led ones like those of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, pushed ways to legalize unauthorized immigrant workers because of their understanding of the group’s contribution to the economy. The immigrant workforce is part of what makes America so prosperous, with GDP per capita 35% higher than the average European Union country and 63% higher than that of Japan.
Mass deportations would be inhumane and disruptive to society.
“For people who look like me, for those living in border communities, and for US citizens who don’t speak English – including my family members. I am scared that an entire population will be terrorized, profiled, and questioned by law enforcement with little accountability, simply because they look a certain way.” (David I. Gonzalez, Hispanic American citizen, Harvard Crimson.)
Finding and detaining undocumented immigrants at any significant scale beyond existing practices would require the deployment of military and other “assets” that would shock the average person and drive civil unrest.
An estimated 22M+ people in the US live in a mixed-status household (meaning at least one person is an undocumented immigrant and at least one is not). Many of them could face the horrors of family separation should Trump implement a zero-tolerance policy as he did at times during his first term, which drove an estimated 4,000+ children to be separated from their families.
Homan’s plans for reinstituting workplace raids to find and deport undocumented immigrants will drive fear and chaos in immigrant communities and cause severe disruptions for targeted employers, which are often small businesses.
Mass deportations would be expensive and logistically challenging.
Deporting the estimated 11M undocumented immigrants in the US would be highly expensive and unprecedented. The American Immigration Council, for instance, estimated it would cost $315B+, which, for instance, is 6x the total cost of the government’s 2022 CHIPS Act intended to boost US semiconductor manufacturing.
The entire prison population in the US is 1.9M, suggesting mass incarceration of any significant portion of America’s undocumented immigrants would require significant investment in and support by private prisons.
More supportive of Trump’s deportation plans:
Deportations focused on national security threats and criminals is rational policy.
Trump has repeatedly emphasized his focus on expelling criminals in his promises for mass deportations – it is hard to imagine anyone opposing the expulsion of undocumented immigrants that are also convicted criminals, a common sense move that would improve public safety.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reported last year that as of Sep 30 2023, there were 1.29M people living illegally in the US that had already received due process and been ordered to return to their home country, a number that has since grown to an estimated 1.35M-1.60M. That population should be a clear and reasonable priority for deportations right after national security threats and convicted criminals.
Deporting undocumented immigrants that are national security threats, criminals, or that illegally crossed the border recently would have a powerful deterring effect on foreign nationals considering illegal entry and improve conditions at the border.
The most recent statements from Trump-appointed “border czar” Tom Homan indicate the administration’s deportation plan will focus first on public safety and national security threats as well as those who are willfully violating a judge’s order to return to their home country. This suggests the immigration crackdown will be more nuanced than many opponents of Trump’s plans fear.
The immigration crisis is significant and cleaning it up is necessary.
According to an ICE report this year, there are 435,000+ undocumented immigrants that were convicted of crimes in the US and 13,000+ that were convicted of homicide in the US or abroad currently living outside immigration detention within the US. These statistics underscore the need to ramp up deportations.
Under President Biden, monthly ICE encounters with migrants that illegally crossed the border reached a record high of 249,000+ in Dec 2023, underscoring issues with existing immigration rules. (Editor’s note: monthly encounters have dropped to 58,000+ in Aug 2024 due in part to an executive order Biden instituted in June.) Trump’s deportation and border plans will be more effective than the Senate border bill that Democrats proposed earlier this year to address these issues because that bill would have wasted tax payer dollars to support long, drawn-out court cases on asylum claims brought on by migrants trying to game the system.
Trump’s posture and current support give him the opportunity to drive lasting immigration reform without alienating supporters of legal immigration.
“The public backs [Trump] on securing the border and reducing the burden that migrants have put on cities across the country. But as Mr. Trump appears to realize, support will ebb if the public sees crying children as their parents are deported, or reads stories of long-settled families broken up and ‘dreamers’ brought here illegally as children deported to countries that they no longer remember.” (Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.)
With Democrats receiving a significant electoral blow, Trump has the opportunity to drive bipartisan legislation in 2025 that addresses the immigration issue in a way that appropriately changes incentives for illegal immigration but does not trigger overly dramatic deportation scenes that even many Republicans oppose.
Other viewpoints:
Given the sheer scale and cost of large-scale deportation efforts in line with Trump’s more extreme campaign promises – a 2015 American Action Forum report estimated it would take $400B-$600B and 20 years to deport 11.2M undocumented immigrants – it is unlikely Trump will pursue such an aggressive strategy. He is more likely to do enough to “check the box” on a campaign promise without taking it too far.
With current resourcing, the US can deport roughly 400,000-600,000 people per year, so it would likely take years to address just the estimated 1.35M-1.60M undocumented immigrants that have already been processed through the system and been ordered to go home.
Be heard
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your perspective on Trump’s deportation plans and we may feature it in our socials or future newsletters. Below are topic ideas to consider.
Do you support or oppose efforts to increase deportations of undocumented immigrants living in the US? Why or why not?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?
Snippets
Iran reportedly sent written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it would not seek to kill Donald Trump after Biden warned an assassination attempt would be seen as an act of war. The Department of Justice revealed allegations last week that Iranian agents had plotted to kill Trump prior to the election.
The FBI arrested CIA official Asif Rahman for allegedly leaking classified documents that showed Israeli plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran.
The consumer price index (CPI) was up 0.2% in October, raising the 12-month annual inflation rate to 2.6%, in-line with expectations. Separately, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it was too early to determine whether there would be another central bank rate cut next month.
President-elect Donald Trump will reportedly attempt to block TikTok from being banned in the US next year. Congress passed a law in April requiring TikTok owner ByteDance to sell TikTok to a buyer not based in China or face a TikTok ban in the US.
The race for a Senate seat in Pennsylvania between incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) and Republican challenger David McCormick will head to a statewide recount. McCormick was leading by less than 0.5% of the vote, the threshold automatically triggering a recount under state law.
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Music on the bottom
Check out this just-released and powerful cover of The Buzzcocks’ “Why Can’t I Touch It” by indie-rock band Mo Lowda & the Humble. (Editors note: I saw this performed live and it may have been my favorite performance of the year!)
Listen on Spotify, Apple Music, or Amazon Music.